Accidents are inevitable.
Catastrophes are not.

Editorial wildlife vignette: wildebeest ask whether there are crocodiles in a river while giraffes answer that none are visible; crocodiles are partly hidden in the water. — **Nonexistent vs. unobserved**Not seeing something does not prove it is absent.

The publication

Cascade Risk Review

One recent real-world event. Multiple connected systems. A closer look at how a disturbance propagates, where it amplifies or stops, and whether the cascade is contained or becomes a catastrophe.

Year 1 · Nr. 93 November 2026

A safety barrier is more than a signal

The Urda collision shows how a safety function can become distributed across technical fallback, communication and procedures, and how switching a system's mode to another can also change its mode of failure.

Read the review

The experiment

Testing the method in public.

Risks In Sync is not presented as a finished framework. It is being tested repeatedly against real incidents.

AI changes the economics of repetition: it helps collect and compare evidence, structure cases and apply the same questions often enough to expose useful patterns, weak assumptions and generic conclusions.

Human judgment remains responsible for case selection, interpretation, evidence checks, editing and publication.

How the experiment works

What is Risks In Sync?

Follow the disturbance.

Risks In Sync studies how disruptions propagate through connected systems.

Rather than asking only how likely an event is or how severe it might be, it asks:

Which paths can carry the disturbance?
Where can it accumulate or amplify?
Which buffers can absorb it?
Which breakers can stop propagation?
Which Gray Zones hide uncertainty or unclear ownership?

About the method